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MATCH ANALYSIS

The 10 stats that actually tell you who's winning a football match

June 2026 · 6 min read · PitchIQ

Forget the scoreline. Football matches are often decided by fine margins, fortunate deflections and moments of individual brilliance that have nothing to do with which team played better. If you want to know who's actually in control of a match, you need to look at the data.

These are the 10 statistics that genuinely reveal what's happening on the pitch — and exactly what PitchIQ tracks in real time during every game.

1. Expected Goals (xG)

The most important number in modern football analysis. xG measures the quality of every chance created, assigning each shot a probability of resulting in a goal based on factors like distance, angle and assist type. A team with 2.1 xG to their opponent's 0.4 xG is comprehensively outplaying them — regardless of the score.

📊 Watch: when a team is losing but their xG is higher than their opponent's, a comeback is often coming. The numbers see it before the scoreboard does.

2. Shots on Target

Not total shots — shots on target. A team can have 20 shots and none of them trouble the goalkeeper. Shots on target filters for quality. Combined with xG, it gives you a complete picture of attacking threat. If a team has high shots on target but low xG, they're generating lots of weak chances. High xG but low shots on target? They're creating excellent but rare opportunities.

3. Pass Accuracy %

A team that completes 92% of their passes is moving the ball with confidence and intent. A team at 74% is struggling, giving the ball away and spending energy defending rather than attacking. Pass accuracy drops when teams are under pressure — it's one of the earliest indicators that a team is losing control of a match.

4. Progressive Passes

Not all passes are equal. A sideways pass to your centre-back and a through ball that splits the defence are both passes — but only one advances the play. Progressive passes count only passes that move the ball significantly towards the opponent's goal. A team making lots of progressive passes is building attacks with purpose. A team recycling possession without progression is going nowhere.

5. Pressing Intensity (PPDA)

PPDA stands for Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action. It measures how aggressively a team presses the opposition — specifically, how many passes they allow before making a tackle, interception or foul. A low PPDA (say, 6) means they're pressing very aggressively. A high PPDA (say, 15) means they're sitting back. Elite pressing teams like Liverpool and Man City at their peak had PPDAs below 8.

📊 PitchIQ tracks pressing intensity as "pressures" — the number of times a player actively presses an opponent in possession. Combined with press success rate, it shows you exactly which teams are winning the battle without the ball.

6. Tackles Won %

Making tackles is one thing. Winning them is another. A team that attempts 20 tackles but only wins 8 (40%) is being beaten in individual duels and constantly gifting the opposition possession. A team winning 75% of their tackles is dominant in the physical battle. Tackle success rate is one of the best indicators of which team is winning the midfield war.

7. Aerial Duels Won

In international football especially, aerial ability matters enormously — particularly from set pieces, which account for roughly 30% of all goals at major tournaments. A team winning 65% of their aerial duels is physically dominant. This stat becomes critical in the final 15 minutes of tight matches when long balls and set pieces increase in frequency.

8. Distance Run (km)

This one requires the Ultra tier of data but tells you something no other stat can: which team is working harder. Elite teams typically cover 110-115km per match. When a team drops below 105km in the second half, fatigue is setting in and their structure will deteriorate. Distance run per player also reveals which individuals are doing the defensive work — and which ones aren't pulling their weight.

9. Ball Recoveries

How often does each team win back possession after losing it? Ball recoveries measure every time a player regains the ball for their team — tackles, interceptions, clearances and loose balls won. A team with high ball recoveries is energetic, organised and winning the second-ball battle. This stat is particularly revealing in the last 20 minutes when tired legs lose the ball more frequently.

10. Touches in the Opposition Box

The ultimate measure of attacking intent. You can have 70% possession and create nothing if you're playing in front of the opposition defence. Touches in the box tells you how often each team is actually getting into dangerous areas. Combined with xG, it separates teams that threaten from teams that just look like they're threatening.

How to use these stats together

No single stat tells the whole story. The real picture emerges when you combine them. A team might have lower xG but higher pressing intensity, suggesting they're a counter-attacking side who create fewer but better quality chances. A team with high possession and low progressive passes is controlling the game without actually threatening.

PitchIQ shows you all 10 of these stats — and many more — updating in real time throughout every match. The goal is simple: to give you the clearest possible picture of what's actually happening on the pitch, beyond what the scoreline tells you.

See all 10 stats live in every match

PitchIQ tracks every stat in this article in real time, for every player, in every game. Free to download.

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